Exports surge throughout Jan-Feb
China’s exports are going gangbusters.
Per data released by the customs bureau (GAC) on March 10:
- Exports during the first two months of the year surged 21.8% y/y – the fastest growth rate in over four years.
- Imports grew 19.8% – the first double-digit increase since April 2024
Export dynamics were largely a repeat of the trends we saw 2025:
First, exporters continued diverse away from the US market.
- Exports to the US fell 11% y/y.
- Meanwhile, shipments to ASEAN and the EU grew by 29% and 28%, respectively.
- Exports to Africa surged 50%.
Get this: Just five years ago, China exported 3.9 times as many goods to the US as it did to Africa.
- This year, that ratio has fallen to 1.6.
Second, growth was dominated by high-tech exports.
- Shipments of semiconductors surged 73%
- Auto exports were up 67%
- Ship exports grew 53%
- Medical equipment exports rose 21%
But unlike last year, low value-added goods also grew strongly
- Exports of textiles, suitcases, garments, and plastics all grew by double digits.
Although disaggregated price data hasn’t yet been released, exports of key items in value terms rose faster than in volume terms.
- This implies exports are being sold at a higher price compared to this time last year – potentially reversing years of export-price deflation.
Meanwhile, strong growth in imports was driven by industrial inputs.
- The import of automatic data processing machines soared 69% y/y
- Semiconductor purchases rose 40%
- Agricultural imports also increased 10%
Get smart: Surging imports of semiconductors and computing equipment is a bullish indicator for China’s manufacturing cycle.
- Rising purchases of industrial inputs typically precede stronger factory output in the months ahead.
The bigger picture: The widening geographic spread of China’s exports suggests the country’s trade network is becoming less dependent on advanced economies.
- That structural shift could make China’s export sector more resilient to future trade shocks.
