Trivium’s analysis centers on our daily, systematic monitoring of the Chinese policy environment. Each day, our analyst teams parse hundreds of sources, ranging from releases of major national policy documents, to reports issued by state-affiliated think tanks, to informal commentary published by obscure but influential policy advisors. We watch state press conferences, follow state, independent, and social media, and keep an eye on the pulse of the domestic conversation. New sources and new voices are added to our monitoring schedule as they emerge.
This daily discipline is the key to our work. Deep, consistent tracking over time gives our analysts a best-in-industry understanding of how China policy is changing and the drivers behind that change. It also positions us to detect small shifts in the tenor of the policy conversation that may indicate big changes to come.
For each of our clients, we select the developments that may impact their operations and discard the rest. We analyze potential impacts, and deliver those insights via regular reporting.
We don’t only analyze what has already happened, we also track the state of China’s policy conversation as debates play out. In practice, that means we systematically collect public commentary by officials, policymakers, legal scholars, top scientists, and other policy advisors whose opinions are known to have weight and influence in the policymaking process. This gives our clients a peek into what China’s top leaders are hearing, and how they are thinking through social, economic, and technological issues, before big decisions are made.
We not only look at major developments and national-level policy initiatives, we also track micro-developments and local-level initiatives. That means our clients can follow the baby-steps leading up to major policy moves and market shifts, see the gaps between national policy and local implementation, and get a birds-eye view on the friction between top-down and bottom-up governance.
Trivium is not a quant shop. We add value by both ensuring our clients never miss an important development, and by illuminating the factors, motivations, and thinking driving Chinese policy. That’s not to say we ignore numbers and statistics – we don’t. But our primary focus is on understanding and communicating what China’s governance apparatus is trying to achieve, how it is trying to get there, what challenges it faces in doing so, and how all of that will impact you.
We operate on the principle that the most advanced technology available today is still the human brain. We do employ some machine-driven tools to assist us in collecting information quickly and efficiently, and we do often experiment with new technologies. But we believe that, when it comes to qualitative analysis, AI-driven tools have not yet advanced to the point that they can consistently and reliably synthesize better insights than – or supplant the experience and observations of – human beings. One day that will change, and so will we. But until it does, we will rely on a human-centered approach to policy analysis, an approach that focuses on discipline, experience, and a thirst for knowledge.
We collect only open-source, publicly available data, with no reliance on insider or material nonpublic information.