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Trivium Markets

Follow Chinese government moves on macro, rates, credit, equities, commodities, currency and other asset classes.

Trivium Markets is the right subscription for:
  • Investors focused on developments in China’s macro policy, capital and commodities markets, and property sector
  • Multinationals keen to anticipate and capitalize on shifts in central and local economic policy
  • Governments seeking both high-level overviews and more nuanced, deeper dives into the trajectory of China’s economy and financial system

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    Trivium Markets: what we cover

    Macro

    China’s economic policymakers are faced with the monumental task of steering the economy through the post-COVID era and transitioning from high-speed to high-quality growth. We watch every move of key regulators like the State Council and the central bank for signals of high-level shifts in China’s economic policy. In addition to digging into key indicators like growth, inflation, and trade data, we also keep a close eye on the policy discussion in Beijing, whether it’s coming out of the CCP’s HQ in Zhongnanhai or key opinion leader commentary in state media.

    Capital markets

    Beijing has major plans to steer more of the country’s savings into domestic capital markets, and, in doing this, to fund the policy-priority sectors that will help drive the next phase of China’s growth – areas such as green energy and advanced manufacturing. Successful capital market reform will also boost returns on China’s vast household assets, channeling savings away from property and personal bank accounts into more productive uses. We explore the policy tweaks – some subtle, others substantial – driving this shift and the impacts on the equities, bonds, futures, and currency markets.

    Finance

    After decades of breakneck growth, in recent years Chinese regulators have been laser-focused on building a financial system that is more efficient, more tightly regulated, and less prone to accumulating major risks. Key themes include financial opening, the emergence of the Greater Bay Area, and the rapid consolidation of the commercial banking sector.

    Commodities

    Our commodities team keeps clients up-to-date on price fluctuations across numerous asset classes, including agriculture, energy, and minerals. We monitor key themes such as the economics of Beijing’s multifaceted energy transition, China’s push for critical minerals supply chain self-reliance, and Xi Jinping’s growing emphasis on food security.

    Property

    China’s property sector is undergoing a once-in-a-generation shift from being a growth-at-all-costs juggernaut characterized by highly leveraged private developers like Evergrande to a stable, predictable industry dominated by state-owned enterprises. We cover the policies behind this transition, along with the ripple effects for home prices, capital markets, local government finances, and downstream industries like construction.

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