China’s leadership is showing remarkable creativity when it comes to its evolving approach to an all-but-certain second-round trade war with the US. In case you’ve been living off-grid: The incoming Trump administration is poised to ratchet up tariffs on a range of countries – starting with China. The only real questions seem to be: How high will the tariffs be? While Trump has
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I’m starting to sense that a major macro-policy shift is underway in Beijing – but, as with all such adjustments, it will take a while to fully play out. At least, that’s my take after having had a few days to digest the latest fiscal support package announced by the legislature (NPCSC) on Friday. The shift: Central officials seem to
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Following Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election, Chinese officials are bracing for another turbulent chapter in China-US relations. Beijing reportedly spent the months leading up to the election developing contingency plans for either a Trump or Harris victory, determined to avoid being caught off guard by either outcome. Trump’s unpredictability and mercurial decision-making style, however, create significant
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My big focus this week – while I try to distract myself from the non-stop US election coverage – is on China’s recent efforts to put the pinch on US companies through its increasingly robust economic lawfare toolkit. Some context: For the past two years – ever since the US first introduced export controls on semiconductor technology sales to China
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It seems like everyone in Trivium China World has spent the past week stuck in a holding pattern – either doomscrolling about the upcoming US election or speculating about next week’s Chinese legislative session. But there’s light at the end of the tunnel. We should finally get some big political and economic questions answered late next week. Last Friday, the
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Just how bad is China’s economy? That’s the question investors and Chinese policymakers are asking themselves – as the former wait for a fiscal support package being designed by the latter. But as we put it in our monthly macro wrap on the Q3 GDP data, published earlier this week: A cynic might point to consumption’s record-low contribution to GDP
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