Trivium Neopol

August 22, 2022

FOCAC’s back, alright!

On Thursday, Foreign Minister Wang Yi attended the Coordinators’ Meeting on the Implementation of the Follow-up Actions of The Eighth Ministerial Conference of The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation.

Pro-tip: People in the know say CMotIotFuAoTEMCoTFOCAC for short.

Some context: Established in 2000, FOCAC is China’s primary multilateral forum for liaising with African countries.

Fun fact: The only African nation not in FOCAC is Eswatini (which still recognizes Taiwan).

Wang extolled the strong state of Sino-African ties, highlighting (MoFA):

• Joint infrastructure development
• Cooperation on COVID-19 and food security
• China’s role in bolstering Africa’s green energy development

He also committed China to new heights of support, including:

• Supporting the African Union in joining the G20
• Providing a new tranche of food assistance to 17 African countries
• Facilitating the return of African exchange students to China

And then the big one: Wang said China would forgive 23 interest free loans, for 17 African countries, that had matured at the end of 2021.

More context: Wang’s announcement comes just weeks after China gave debt relief to Zambia, clearing the way for a possible International Monetary Fund bailout (FT).

Get smart: China is increasingly focusing its diplomatic energy on developing countries.

• For many, China’s “strictly business” model of developmental aid is more attractive than the values-laden Western alternative.

August 19, 2022

Ni howdily-ho neighborino!

On Wednesday, top Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi met with Akiba Takeo, the secretary-general of Japan’s National Security Secretariat, in Tianjin.

Some context: Sino-Japanese relations have historically been…umm…a little fraught.

• In recent months, Japanese criticism of China’s Taiwan policy have further chilled already tense ties.

Yang reiterated Beijing’s position on Taiwan and called on Japan to do more to improve ties (Zaobao):

• “The Japanese side should focus on the fundamental and long-term interests of the two countries and the two peoples, establish a correct understanding of China, [and] pursue a positive, pragmatic and rational policy toward China.”

Akiba fired back that China’s military drills weren’t helping things (NHK):

• “Akiba condemned and protested [China’s] large-scale military exercises…and reiterated…the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”

Yawn: That’s a pretty standard exchange of views.

But check this: Chinese state media has been remarkably mum about this relatively high-level meeting.

• Usually there’s a fair bit of fanfare when Yang meets a foreign leader.

Get smart: Sino-Japanese relations are complicated because the two countries have major political disagreements but deeply intertwined economies.

• Even amid verbal sparring over Taiwan, Beijing has a strong incentive to keep ties with Tokyo stable.

What to watch: China and Japan celebrate 50 years of official diplomatic relations on September 29. It’s a golden opportunity to build some positive momentum in bilateral ties.

August 18, 2022

Leave a light on

On Wednesday, Executive Vice Premier Han Zheng helmed a State Grid symposium to talk about – what else? – keeping the power on.

ICYMI: Record-breaking heatwaves and drought-induced hydropower shortages drove Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Anhui to start restricting industrial power consumption last week.

• If the heatwave continues, more provinces will have to follow suit.

What Han told State Grid: Keep power flowing to households, public services, and industry – in that order.

And above all:

• “Resolutely prevent power outages.”

What Han meant: For the love of Mao, we cannot have a repeat of the fall 2021 power crisis!

• ICYDK, that’s when a series of local power shortages spiraled into a full-blown nationwide energy crisis.
• Central authorities, woefully unprepared, scrambled to find coal to fill power demand gaps.
• Beijing took a month to realize how systemic the issue was, and another month to get the crisis under control.

Officials are being more proactive, but Beijing’s energy security playbook hasn’t changed much since fall 2021: Han reiterated that authorities will do everything possible to keep coal stockpiles high, even as China keeps expanding renewable energy capacity.

Get smart: Despite Han’s admonishment, if the heatwave continues, there will be more industrial power disruptions in central China.

• Coal and renewables can only produce so much power at once. With hydropower output limited by drought, Sichuan will struggle to handle the daily demand spikes.
• In all likelihood, industrial power consumption will have to be further curbed to keep air conditioners on in homes.

August 5, 2022

Going ballistic

Well, it’s resolute countermeasures day…again.

The story so far: On Tuesday, US Speaker of the House Nancy kicked off a visit to Taiwan despite the mainland’s strenuous objections.

• In response, Beijing announced several retaliatory actions including blocking certain Taiwanese imports and exports and conducting massive military drills in the waters around Taiwan.
• The drills kicked off on Thursday at noon, local time.

Now it appears Beijing has upped the ante.

According to the Japanese defense ministry, China has fired four missiles over Taiwan itself.

• If true this would be a big deal, marking the first time that the mainland has fired missiles directly over Taiwan’s landmass. (Bloomberg)

At the time of writing, neither Beijing nor Taipei had confirmed the overflight, but the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Command shared a state media article quoting Meng Xiangqing, a professor at National Defense University, saying it had taken place (Bloomberg):

• “This can be seen as a clear signal to the Taiwan authorities that current drills have exceeded all previous ones in scale and deterrence.”

Get smart: The operative word here is deterrence.

• Beijing wants to make its displeasure known but without risking actual conflict.

Get smarter: Nobody’s going to war over the Pelosi trip, but the precedent-breaking missile overflight suggests a dangerous ‘new normal’, and highlights the long-term risks of US-China brinksmanship over Taiwan.

August 2, 2022

The PLA turns 95

China’s armed forces just enjoyed a birthday party – and everyone was there.

On Sunday, Xi Jinping and all six of his Politburo Standing Committee colleagues attended a reception to celebrate the 95th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

Such high-level attendance comes as no surprise – Xi has made strengthening the armed forces one of his top priorities since coming into power in late 2012.

• Over the past decade, Xi has restructured the military to build it into a force that can “fight and win wars.”

Xi’s thinking is simple, as he laid out at the Party’s 100^th anniversary in July 2021:

• “A strong country must have a strong military.”

At Sunday’s reception, where banquet tables were decorated with white birds of peace, defense minister Wei Fenghe said the PLA has (Gov.cn):

• “Made important contributions to maintaining world peace and tranquility”

Get smart: Military modernization has come a long way under Xi. But the PLA hasn’t experienced a combat situation for over 40 years.

• Major doubts remain about how the PLA would fare in a genuine conflict.

August 1, 2022

Rocket scientist lands at MIIT

On Friday, China’s top aerospace expert Jin Zhuanglong was appointed the new Party boss of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT).

• He replaces Xiao Yaqing, who just got grabbed by anti-corruption investigators.

Some context: Xiao’s fall is rumored to be related to a recent probe into the chip industry.

• The sector hasn’t been doing as well as Beijing would like, and it looks like lots of funds have been misappropriated (surprise!).

Jin is more tech savvy than Xiao.

• Trained as an aerospace engineer, Jin moved up the ranks to become director of the Shanghai Aerospace Bureau in 1998. 
• He then rotated through key positions ranging from state-owned aerospace giants to the China National Space Administration.

More importantly: In 2017, Jin became deputy director of the office of the Central Military-Civilian Integration Development Commission, a ministerial-level body led by Xi Jinping.

• The office is tasked with leveraging China’s commercial sector to upgrade the country’s military technology. 

Our take: Jin appears to be much more tech-focused than his predecessor.

• Which suggests he’d be a more capable pair of hands to help manage China’s increasingly tech-driven economy.

Our other take: Expect Jin to help the military build more jets and rockets…  

• …and to bring the political clout to push China’s increasingly ambitious space program to the next level.