China’s 2026 No. 1 Document: The Party’s productivity agenda comes to agriculture

It was another breathless week for those keeping an eye on all things China.

If you were asked to pick a highlight, you could easily land on Xi Jinping’s diplomatic doubleheader on Wednesday:

• First, a video call with Russian President Vladimir Putin to sketch out a new blueprint for strategic integration.
• Then, another call with US President Donald Trump, shoring up the trade truce ahead of Trump’s planned April visit.

Not bad for a day’s work.

Yet, for us, perhaps the most consequential signal of the week came with much less fanfare, in the form of the Party Central Committee’s first policy document of the year – the 2026 No. 1 Document.

It’s the 23rd straight year the Party’s first policy paper of the year has focused on agriculture, farmers, and rural development – to signal how highly the leadership prioritizes rural issues.

• So, business as usual, right?
• Nope.

This year’s doc reveals a massive rethink in the state’s approach to the rural economy.

• And the implications extend well beyond the countryside.

TL;DR: Simply put, food production – and thus food security – is being industrialized, while support for farmers is being socialized.

That needs some explaining to properly draw out – but we think the juice is worth the squeeze.

• So let’s get squeezing.

It’s no secret that Party policy documents like these can be hard to read – and this year’s No. 1 Doc is no exception.

• It rattles off 27 vague to-dos across six thematic areas, steeped in Party-speak.
• Plus, if you haven’t read the last few of them, it can be hard to decipher which agendas are new, which are evolving, and what are just routine box-ticking.

So what changed in this year’s version that piqued our interest?

For years, the No. 1 Doc has placed the topic of direct state support to farmers (like subsidies, crop insurance, and state-set price floors) in its very first section, which is – and this is crucial – focused on agricultural production.

• But in the 2026 version, all mention of these direct support measures has been moved to a different section, focused on raising farmers’ incomes.

We know. Crazy, right?

• No, seriously – it is.

Here’s the backstory: For decades, top leaders believed ensuring China’s food security required getting a massive number of tiny smallholder farmers to grow enough grain.

• To get there, Beijing relied on a combination of subsidized inputs, guaranteed prices, and subsidized insurance to absorb downside risk and entice farmers into planting staples.
• Top leaders viewed production as dependent on these incentives – and they were probably right, given the tiny farm sizes, low mechanization rates, lack of infrastructure, and frequent natural disasters that plagued the farming economy.

That’s why the shift in the 2026 No. 1 Doc matters.

• Moving these direct incentives from the “agricultural production” section to the “farmers’ income” section suggests the Party is decoupling its approach to food production from direct rural support.

This structural shift points to a new, more industrial vision of agricultural production, and by extension, food security:

• Agricultural production has been reframed as an industry like any other, shaped by capital, technology, and infrastructure, with a focus on increasing production capacity and efficiency.
• Direct support for farmers, meanwhile, has been reconceived as a tool for stabilizing farm income and achieving rural development outcomes, not the primary driver of agricultural output.

Just look at what the leaner, meaner “production” section (right at the top of the Doc – the top priority) is now focused on:

• Improving crop varieties
• Adopting modern farm equipment
• Upgrading irrigation systems and bolstering disaster resilience
• Improving the scale, standardization, quality, and efficiency of farming

Boom! That’s basically a call to raise total factor productivity (TFP) in the farming sector – right in line with the broader obsession with productivity (and NQPF) across national policy.

But this doesn’t mean that direct fiscal support to farmers and agribusinesses is about to evaporate.

• On the contrary, we expect subsidies, insurance, and targeted interventions in farm pricing to expand this year.
• (December’s Central Economic Work Conference made rural (and urban) income growth and avoiding food price deflation priorities for the year.)

But the reconceptualization of farming as an industry like any other will enable working-level officials to reshape how farms are operated in pursuit of Beijing’s 10-year goal of becoming an agricultural superpower. 

• Doing so could reshape not just the rural economy, but national income and growth trajectories, and influence global commodity markets.

While we don’t have enough time to dig into all this here, we’ll leave you with a couple of optimistic takeaways.

First, food and agribusinesses operating in China should rejoice: By reframing agriculture as a critical industry, top leaders have given working-level officials more freedom to push for modernization, consolidation, and scale; to use subsidies to manage social stability rather than targeted output volumes; and – over the longer run – to reduce reliance on blunt price intervention.

• All of that should translate into substantial improvements in the business environment.

It’s also good news for global commodity interests: China is signaling that it wants markets to work, modernization and technology to drive supply, and the state to step in only when farmers’ incomes and social stability are under threat.

• That should translate into a more confident policy posture even when markets are volatile, with intervention primarily on the downside, creating more space for traders to operate.

If you want to dig deeper into this or any other part of China’s ag sector, please reach out.

• We’re one of very few advisory firms that watch this space, which is all but ignored in most analyses of where China’s economy is headed, despite being the Party’s long-stated and well-established top priority.

Even Pay, Director, Trivium China