Provinces scale back economic growth ambitions

China’s provinces are dialing down growth ambitions for 2026.

As of January 31, 22 of the mainland’s 31 provincial-level legislatures had set economic targets for the year.

Here are the big takeaways:

First, 14 provinces have trimmed their GDP growth targets compared to 2025.

• Seven provinces kept their target unchanged.
• Jiangxi was the only province to increase its target.

Second, officials don’t have much confidence in an investment rebound.

• Seven of the nine provinces that set investment growth targets in 2025 and 2026 lowered their target for the year.
• The remaining two kept it steady.
• Liaoning, meanwhile, scrapped its target entirely.

Third, policymakers aren't expecting a consumption rebound.

• Eight of ten provinces that set growth targets for consumer goods retail sales set them lower than 2025.
• Only one – Xinjiang – raised its target, while Hebei kept things unchanged.

Fourth, inflation expectations remain subdued.

• 14 of 15 provinces that set CPI targets kept them unchanged at around 2% – compared to the usual 3% pre-2025.

Get smart: The overall reduction in provincial GDP growth targets is the strongest signal yet that Beijing will do the same with the national target when the legislature (NPC) meets in March.

• Odds are firming for a target of 4.5-5% – replacing the “around 5%” target of the past few years.

Get smarter: A lower target would ease pressure on officials to pursue headline growth, creating more room to advance initiatives essential to the economy’s long-term health – like addressing involution, boosting innovation, and repairing local government balance sheets.