Nonferrous metals industry growth plan targets industrial value added, recycling
On Sunday (what are weekends?) the industry regulator (MIIT) published a 2025-2026 growth plan for the nonferrous metals industry.
- It targets 10 nonferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, and lithium.
Some context: This is the third such industry plan released in the past week, following others for steel and building materials.
The plan has two key focuses.
First, moving the industry up the value chain.
- The plan targets a 5% y/y increase in industrial value-added (IVA), compared with a 1.5% increase in output.
- IVA growth will be driven by the production of higher-end, high-purity metals, copper alloys, rare earth materials, and products for emerging industries such as EVs, aerospace, and AI.
ICYDK: IVA measures the contribution of an industry to GDP after subtracting the costs of raw inputs – a proxy for productivity and efficiency. Output, by contrast, is a simple measure of the total volume produced.
- Value-added can rise faster than output if firms climb up the value chain.
Second, making the industry greener.
- MIIT is targeting a 4.4% increase in recycled nonferrous metal output, to reach 20 million metric tons.
- The plan also targets a variety of green initiatives such as low-carbon, energy-efficient production and upgrades to key equipment.
Notably, Beijing is not addressing overcapacity concerns.
- Instead, the plan underscores the need to strengthen upstream resource security, including exploration, extraction, and recycling of key minerals.
- Meanwhile, there was no mention of restricting downstream processing output.
Get smart: Achieving 5% IVA growth with just a 1.5% increase in output will be tremendously difficult, considering most nonferrous metal industries don’t have the financial resources to invest in meaningful value-added upgrades.
Get smarter: The plan’s emphasis on upstream resource security signals that Beijing is prioritizing reliable raw-material supply over restricting downstream output.
- Firms with strong access to mines, recycling networks, and emerging-material resources are likely to benefit.