Politburo signals more aggressive stimulus in 2025
China's top leaders are preparing to ramp up fiscal and monetary support in 2025.
On Monday, Xi Jinping chaired a Politburo meeting to discuss economic priorities for the coming year.
The meeting readout emphasized the Politburo's determination to offer significantly more economic stimulus going forward:
- "[We must] implement more active fiscal policies and moderately accommodative monetary policy, enrich and improve the policy toolbox, [and] strengthen extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments."
That's big: The last time officials adopted a “moderately accommodative monetary policy” was during 2009-2010, in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis.
The readout highlighted the Politburo's focus on driving demand "across the board" by boosting both investment and consumption.
- Officials also pledged to "stabilize the property market and stock market," acknowledging the urgency of tackling the consumer confidence dumpster fire.
Amid rising trade and economic tensions with the US, the leadership reiterated its commitment to:
- "Expand high-level opening up to the outside world, and stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment"
Get smart: The Politburo has set the tone for next year – and the plan is to go much bigger than they did in 2024.
Our take: We previously expected a sizable bump in fiscal spending and accelerated interest rate cuts in 2025 – this all but confirms those moves will be forthcoming.
What's next: All eyes are now on the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) – expected to take place later this week – for more clues about exactly what officials have in store for 2025.