On the surface, China’s economy looks fine. GDP grew 5.0% y/y in Q1, faster than Q4’s 4.5% growth, and at the upper range of Beijing’s annual growth target of 4.5-5%. So China’s economy has shrugged off the Iran war and entered 2026 in good shape, right? Not so fast. Despite the punchy headline growth rate, economic momentum was clearly fading
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Despite the geopolitical turbulence of Donald Trump’s second term in office, China has weathered the storm remarkably well. From adroitly facing down US tariffs with its own proportional response to mending fences with spurned American partners, Beijing has navigated Trump’s erratic tenure with aplomb. But as the Iran war enters its seventh week, Chinese leaders face a genuine geopolitical conundrum – and unfamiliar
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As semiconductor engineers know, helium ain’t just about party balloons and squeaky voices. It’s irreplaceable in chipmaking – and global supply just took a massive hit. This week, we want to walk you through a supply chain story that has nothing to do with tariffs or export controls – but could prove just as disruptive to China’s chip push. It
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For years, China has been battling deflation. But as of last month, it faces the opposite problem – a shift that couldn’t have come at a worse time. The Iran war has delivered an energy price shock that has rippled through China’s economy at rapid speed. The US-Israel strikes on Iran began on February 28 – by March, PMI survey data was
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Chinese authorities are done apologizing, if they ever started. That’s been one of the main themes from my conversations in Beijing this week – many of which focused on messaging from the new 15th Five-Year Plan and remarks by Chinese officials at the China Development Forum (CDF). The CDF, for the uninitiated, is an annual gathering where Chinese officials tout
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China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) – approved on 12 March 2026 – will guide policy, resource allocation, and regulatory development through 2030. For multinational corporations operating in China, it is the single most important document for understanding where the country is heading – and what that means for business. This note distills the plan into 10 takeaways, each framed around
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