Export growth plummets in March

China’s export growth dropped sharply in March.

Per data released by the customs bureau (GAC) on April 14:

• Exports grew just 2.5% y/y in March, a sharp slowdown from the 21.8% growth recorded across January-February.
• Imports surged 27.8%, building on 19.8% growth over the first two months of the year.
• The resulting trade surplus of USD 51.1 billion was the lowest monthly reading (outside of Chinese New Year) in four years.

The export slowdown was concentrated in low-cost consumer durables.

• Shipments of textiles (-28%), toys (-42%), and luggage (-35%) all fell sharply.
• Higher-value exports – including autos, computers, and chips – continued to grow strongly.

The import surge was driven by a rise in raw material shipments – including iron ore and refined petroleum – alongside a jump in semiconductor chip and computer hardware imports.

Get smart: March's weak export print is less alarming than it appears.

• First, exports in March 2025 surged 12.2% y/y as exporters rushed to ship goods ahead of US tariff implementation. These base effects artificially lowered last months’ export growth.
• Second, Chinese New Year was later than usual this year, disrupting March production of low-value exports as migrant workers trickled back to their factories from home.

Get smarter: Against that backdrop, any positive export growth at all is a reasonable achievement – and Q1 exports as a whole grew 14.7% y/y, the strongest quarterly growth rate in four years.

Our take: The net impact of the Iran war on China's exports remains difficult to assess.

• Higher oil prices will weigh on household incomes in China's key export markets, slowing demand for consumer durables.
• On the other hand, rising manufacturing costs elsewhere will make Chinese exports of intermediate goods and capital equipment more price-competitive – potentially offsetting some of the demand-side drag.