Beijing, Pakistan put forward five-point plan for peace in the Middle East

Beijing may yet have a role to play in finding an offramp in the Gulf.

On March 31, top diplomat Wang Yi and Pakistani Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar issued a five-point initiative to end the Gulf crisis after meeting in Beijing.

The five points (MofA):

• Immediate cessation of hostilities and humanitarian access
• Peace talks respecting Iran and the Gulf states' sovereignty
• Protection of civilians and non-military infrastructure, including energy facilities and nuclear plants
• Security guarantees for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz
• UN-led multilateral framework for lasting peace

Why it matters: Iran has repeatedly signaled that it wants China involved in any negotiated peace.

• During a March 9 press conference in Beijing, Iran's ambassador to China Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli said that China will play “a critically important role in promoting a ceasefire, ending the war, and stopping aggression” (Global Times).
• In an interview with Chinese media published March 15, Fazli said Iran would "never again trust the United States" and called for a collective security plan developed jointly with China, Russia, and Gulf states (Guancha).
• Israeli media recently reported that Iran may be refusing to enter negotiations without security guarantees from China and/or Russia (Times of Israel).

Plus, China has some serious skin in the game.

• Roughly half of China's seaborne oil imports and a third of its LNG transit the Strait (Columbia University).
• While years of energy stockpiling give Beijing a cushion against a short-term supply shock, reserves won’t do much to ameliorate the impact of a global oil squeeze on demand in the export markets on which China's manufacturing sector depends.

Between the lines: Islamabad has emerged as the primary intermediary between Washington and Tehran.

• We doubt they would freelance with Beijing unless the US gave the greenlight.
• That lifts the odds that Beijing’s participation could facilitate a durable de-escalation.

What to watch: The plan is meaningless if Iran doesn't get on board.

• The test is whether Tehran treats this as the great-power backing it's been demanding – or dismisses it as insufficient without Russia’s co-signature.