On Our Radar | Lights, camera, friction!
The most important upcoming developments for policy and politics in China over the next month
key developments
foreign affairs
- Trump’s China visit (March 31-April 2)
econ and finance
- Chinese response to Iran energy shock (coming weeks)
- Q1 GDP release (April 16)
business environment
- China Development Forum (March 22-23)
tech
- China to launch World Data Organization (March 30)
politics
- Ministerial-level officials due to retire (March-April)
foreign affairs
1. Trump’s China visit (March 31-April 2)
At the end of the month, US President Donald Trump will make his first trip to China since 2017.
US-China relations have been generally stable since Trump’s October meeting with Xi Jinping in Busan. But in recent weeks, signs of strain have reemerged:
- Washington scrambled to reimpose tariffs on trade partners – including China – after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.
- US and Israeli attacks on Iran have threatened Chinese energy security and destabilized one of Beijing’s key partners in the Middle East.
- Communication problems between the two sides have hampered planning for the visit itself.
Despite this uptick in tensions (or maybe because of it), Trump’s visit is a key opportunity for the US and China to build on progress since the Busan meeting.
- If the visit goes well, we could see further stabilization and a more durable trade truce.
- If it goes badly, it could be the prelude to a new round of escalation and make future truces less likely.
We’ll also be watching for any shifts in US security policy, broadly defined.
- Might Trump ease sanctions on Chinese companies or loosen tech export controls?
- Could Xi coax Trump into less explicit support for Taiwan?
Trump’s transactional worldview and unorthodox approach to US security means more could be on the negotiating table than otherwise possible.
- Bilateral relations could look completely different after the two leaders meet – with potentially huge consequences for business.
econ and finance
2. Chinese response to Iran energy shock (coming weeks)
Chinese consumers and industry are beginning to feel the economic pain of soaring oil and gas prices triggered by the Iran conflict.
- Roughly 40% of China's oil imports – accounting for around 30% of national consumption – pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed.
- China also sources over half of its sulfur and two-thirds of its methanol imports – both critical chemical feedstocks – from Iran, a supply likely to be entirely severed for the foreseeable future.
There’s no quick fix: Even if the conflict ends in a matter of days, the damage to regional oil and gas infrastructure and production cuts by major producers mean disruptions are likely to persist for some time.
Downstream, a swathe of industries – from aviation and shipping to chemicals and fertilizers – will face price spikes and supply shortages.
- Plus, consumers are already reckoning with a fuel price hike at the pump, and further increases are almost certain to follow.
China is better insulated than other major economies, between massive state oil and chemical reserves, recent stockpiling efforts, and increasingly electrified industries and vehicle fleets.
- Still, there’s bound to be some economic pain in the short-term, and if the conflict drags on, it could prove devastating to growth, fiscal stability, and SOE bottom lines.
What we’re watching: How will Beijing intervene to insulate its economy from the worst impacts of the conflict in the short term?
- Will the macro planner’s reported ban on fuel exports be formally announced?
- Will existing controls on fertilizer exports be extended or expanded?
- Will China make public any release from its strategic oil reserves?
- Can it ramp up Russian oil imports enough to meaningfully offset the loss of Gulf supply?
- Will officials turbo-charge electrification efforts in hopes of shielding the economy from future shocks?
3. Q1 GDP release (April 16)
In his speech to the legislature on March 5, Premier Li Qiang set the GDP growth target for 2026 at between 4.5% and 5.0%.
- On April 16, Beijing will publish the Q1 GDP data, giving us an indication of which end of the range is more feasible.
ICYDK: China’s economy has been slowing.
- In Q4 2025, GDP grew 4.5% y/y, down from 4.8% in Q3 and 5.4% in Q2.
Is the worst over?
- It's hard to tell.
The war in Iran could drag on China's economy if energy prices remain high.
- That would suppress domestic demand, while reducing demand for Chinese exports.
But economic support is in the pipeline.
- The government work report committed to an additional RMB 300 billion in funding for infrastructure this year, which will be distributed by the policy banks.
- That's not insignificant – but it might not be enough to counter headwinds facing the economy which, in addition to war, include the property markets' deepening slump, and the government's anti-involution efforts.
Beijing has signaled that more investment will be forthcoming – but didn't say how much more.
- The additional spending on public works will come from special purpose bonds (SPBs) – which historically were solely used for infrastructure investment.
- However, in 2025 funds raised from SPBs were used for a bunch of things – like paying down local governments' arrears and buying back unused land from developers – in addition to funding infrastructure.
Beijing has said that a greater share of SPBs will go toward infrastructure this year.
- We're hoping for more details in the coming weeks, but until then there's no way of gauging how stimulatory government investment is likely to be.
The Q1 GDP print won't answer any of those questions.
- But it will offer a good indication of just how tough it will be to hit this year’s growth target.
business environment
4. China Development Forum (March 22-23)
The annual China Development Forum (CDF) will be held in Beijing from March 22-23.
ICYDK: Held annually since 2000, the CDF is the premier gathering of government leaders and foreign executives, providing a rare platform for foreign business leaders to discuss trade and investment issues with senior Chinese officials.
- Premier Li Qiang and a handful of minister-level officials are expected to attend, along with dozens of CEOs.
This year’s CDF comes at a pivotal moment: Given the ongoing Iran conflict and President Trump’s planned visit, business leaders will be desperate for clarity on Beijing’s geopolitical risk management and the contours of US‑China engagement.
What we’re watching: Can policymakers reassure foreign executives that investing and operating in China remains a strategic choice amid mounting geopolitical chaos?
What else we’re watching: For the past two years, Xi Jinping has taken meetings with foreign CEOs shortly after the CDF wraps up.
- Will this year be a three-peat?
5. Boao Forum for Asia (March 24-27)
The annual Boao Forum for Asia will be held from March 24 to 27 in Hainan province.
Some context: The forum, modeled on the World Economic Forum in Davos, focuses on Asian regional development and cooperation.
- It has become an important platform for senior leaders to convene symposiums with foreign business executives and meet with foreign government dignitaries from across the Asia Pacific.
More context: In the past, the forum also served as a platform for the Chinese leadership to unveil important policy initiatives.
- Xi Jinping used the forum to unveil his vision for global security, a strategic emphasis on Asian solidarity, and a financial policy roadmap for China’s green and low-carbon transition.
This year’s event will see a bunch of big wigs in attendance: The Singaporean and South Korean Prime Ministers have both confirmed they are attending.
Our question: Which official will Beijing send to the forum this year to headline proceedings?
- The official’s seniority will signal how much importance Beijing attaches to Asian regional issues this year.
tech
6. China to launch World Data Organization (March 30)
At the end of this month, China will launch the World Data Organization (WDO) in Beijing.
The skinny: The WDO positions itself as a “professional, non-governmental, and non-profit international organization” creating a platform for:
- Information sharing on data policy, regulations, and standards
- Collaborative work on data governance, technologies, and standardization
- Finding talent and consulting services
Organizers say more than 200 organizations have lined up to participate, including 60 Fortune 500 companies.
Some context: At APEC in 2024, Xi Jinping kicked off the Global Cross-border Data Flow Cooperation Initiative, a government-to-government program aimed at fostering bilateral and multilateral data agreements.
- The WDO looks to be a non-governmental counterpart – although inevitably guided by the state.
Our question: How enthusiastic will members be?
- China has launched several similar organizations in recent years, with little activity after the initial announcements.
politics
7. Ministerial-level officials due to retire (March-April)
According to Party-state rules, ministerial-level officials should retire before hitting 65.
- In practice, officials sometimes retire a few months after – for example, Sun Shaocheng turned 65 in July, but only stepped down as Party boss of the Ministry of Transport in October.
- The rule can also be ignored entirely – Song Tao still heads the Taiwan Affairs Office, despite being 70.
One official turns 65 in April: Wang Ning, Party secretary of Yunnan.
Meanwhile, three officials have already hit retirement age but are yet to step down:
- Zhuang Rongwen, director of the Cyberspace Administration of China, who turned 65 in February.
- Gong Zheng, mayor of Shanghai, who just turned 66 this month.
- Chen Yixin, minister of state security, who turned 66 in September
What to watch: We expect that Wang, Zhuang and Gong will step down in the coming months.
- But Chen Yixin will likely keep his spot, given his close connection with Xi Jinping, developed during their overlapping time in Zhejiang province.