China aiming for minimum 4.17% average annual growth over next decade

Beijing is targeting average annual growth of at least 4.17% over the next decade.

• That's what we've pieced together from official materials tied to the Party Central Committee's Proposals for the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) (2026-2030).

ICYMI: The Proposals set a long-term goal for China to reach per capita GDP at the level of “moderately developed countries” by 2035.

• The problem is, “moderately developed countries” isn’t an official classification used by any multilateral organization.

A recent Party Q&A on the Proposals provides some clarity (Caixin): The benchmark refers to countries with per capita GDP above USD 20,000 – roughly the level of the world’s least wealthy advanced economy in 2020.

• According to World Bank data, China’s per capita GDP in 2024 was USD 13,303.
• To get across the USD 20,000 per capita GDP threshold by 2035, the economy will need to grow by 4.17% annually – measured in 2020 dollars.

But there's another target in play: In 2020, Xi Jinping said China could double its GDP per capita by 2035 – implying about USD 21,250 – and that’s served as an informal target ever since.

• Hitting that mark would require average annual growth of 4.8% over the next decade.

Get smart: Xi's goal stands.

• 4.17% is a floor, not a ceiling.

Our take: Beijing will strive for 5% annual GDP growth over the next few years.

• If it hits that target in the near term, it will by itself a little wriggle room for growth to slow in the back half of the next decade.