Hostile US prompted Beijing to adopt more assertive 15th FYP blueprint
Recent publications have shed light on how US hostilities encouraged Beijing to adopt a far more assertive geopolitical stance in the recent Proposals for 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) (2026-2030).
First up, a Xinhua article, published October 29, describing the drafting process of the FYP:
- “On April 10, the drafting team held a special meeting to assess changes in the external environment and adjust the overall approach and framework of the document accordingly.”
There's little doubt: These “changes in the external environment” refer to the 34% tariffs the US slapped on Chinese exports, announced eight days before the drafting team’s special meeting.
Meanwhile, in a policy commentary published October 30, Premier Li Qiang explains that (Gov.cn):
- “A defining feature of the 15th Five-Year Plan period is that major power relations will shape the international landscape, while shifts in the global environment will, in turn, profoundly affect China’s domestic development”
No points for guessing which “major power relations” Li is referring to.
As a result, China-US relations have taken center stage in Beijing’s long-term planning. This is demonstrated through the proactive, assertive language in the Party’s 15th FYP Proposals (Xinhua 2):
- “China has many favorable factors for actively managing international space and shaping the external environment.”
What all this means: China’s top brass is increasingly confident that it can compete with the US across the trade, tech, and geopolitical spheres.
The upshot: The truce struck between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on October 30 is less a durable peace than a temporary pause in hostilities.
Both sides are likely to use this respite to shore up strategic advantages:
- For Washington, that means reducing reliance on Chinese rare-earth exports.
- For Beijing, it means accelerating the development of its own critical technologies.
Our take: This fragile balance could unravel as soon as either side feels its vulnerabilities in these areas have been neutralized.