Trump-Xi call paves way for meeting in October
On Friday, Xi Jinping held a call with US President Donald Trump.
Some context: China and the US are trying to negotiate a deal on key issues like agricultural purchases, tech restrictions, rare earths, fentanyl, TikTok, and more.
As it happened, the call produced little except an agreement for the two leaders to meet on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in South Korea in late October.
- In a Truth Social post, Trump also said he would “go to China in the early part of next year.”
Per China’s readout, Xi told Trump that (MoFA):
- “China and the United States are fully capable of helping each other succeed and prosper”
- “The U.S. side should refrain from imposing unilateral trade restrictions so as not to disrupt the outcomes of…consultation between the two sides”
While Trump indicated that Xi had offered his approval for the TikTok deal, the Chinese readout was less committal, expressing only that China was “happy to see productive commercial negotiations” on the matter.
Get smart: We are unlikely to have significant movement on any of the big bilateral issues until Trump visits China in 2026.
- That's because both sides will want that visit to end in a "deal," and so will hold back any deliverables until then.
Glass half full: The mooted visit of Trump to China in 2026 should keep bilateral relations on an even keel as neither side wants to rock the boat in the run-up to a leaders summit.
Glass half empty: An October visit by Trump to China could have built on recent momentum to break through diplomatic impasses.
- The longer the trip is delayed, the higher the likelihood of a breakdown in US-China ties.
Stay tuned: We’ll be watching for any signs of progress ahead of the sideline meeting in South Korea next month.