Politburo gets plenum on calendar and discusses economic policy for H2

The Politburo held its monthly meeting on Wednesday.

• First up, the leadership set an October date for the Party Central Committee’s Fourth Plenum – which will set the framework for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030).

They then turned to charting China's economic course for H2.

TL;DR: The Politburo said that, overall, things are going swimmingly and pledged to stay the policy course.

• It left the door open for more support, but only if things take a turn – e.g. if things go pear-shaped with the US.

Our top picks:

• The Politburo again called for accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds to expedite the flow of fiscal support.
• It called for boosting domestic demand by expanding goods consumption, cultivating new growth drivers in services, and improving people’s livelihoods.
• It pledged to tackle "involution-style competition" and overcapacity by cracking down on harmful competition, promoting capacity governance in key industries, and reining in local government incentives that encourage overbuilding.

The property sector – the biggest drag on the economy – didn't get a mention.

• Instead, officials called for “promoting high-quality urban renewal."

Get smart: Stronger-than-expected H1 economic growth has China well on course to hit its 5% GDP target for the year.

• That has given policymakers room to hold fire on major new support efforts – unless the outlook worsens.

Get smarter: That doesn’t mean more marginal support isn't on the table, which could include:

• New subsidies and incentives to boost service consumption
• Targeted cost relief or grants for vulnerable groups

What to watch: The next key policy window is late September, when officials will reassess the need for further support.