China installs jaw-dropping 93 GW of new solar capacity in May

China has just pulled off the most remarkable solar installation boom in history.

Per data released by the energy regulator (NEA) on Monday, China added 197.9 GW of new solar capacity between January-May, a staggering 150% y/y increase.

• In May alone, China added 93 GW of capacity, more than total US installations throughout 2023 and 2024 combined.

Our question: Could this be the solar industry’s last hurrah before installations fall off a cliff?

• In early-2025, regulators unveiled two power market reforms – effective end-April and end-May respectively – that will significantly undermine revenues for future renewable energy projects.
• The reforms have triggered an unprecedented installation rush as developers raced to lock in more favorable financial conditions ahead of the policy changes.

Get smart: While China is all but certain to break its 2024 solar installation record, this year's aggressive installation frontloading makes a sharp slowdown inevitable in the coming months.

• This slowdown will undermine China’s overcapacity-plagued solar manufacturing industry – triggering the long-overdue wave of bankruptcies and consolidation needed to rebalance the industry.

Get smarter: China’s renewables boom means 2025 could be the first year coal-fired power generation begins to decline.

• It may also drive national carbon emissions to peak in 2025, five years ahead of Beijing’s 2030 target.