Expecting the unexpected
Like the ancient American proverb goes, “fool me once, can’t get fooled again.”
On Thursday, SCMP published a scoop citing multiple insider sources describing how China is gearing up for Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
TL;DR: Beijing has been gaming out the implications of Trump 2.0 for months.
Sources told SCMP:
- “Discussions on how to prepare for the possibility of a second Trump term began in the spring.”
- “Over the past several months, all of the nation’s top international relations think tanks have been asked to submit papers…with their best educated guesses on prospective cabinet members under both Trump and Harris."
Access to Trump is also top-of-mind:
- During his first term, Chinese officials reportedly struggled to access Trump – that is, until they connected with his son-in-law Jared Kushner.
- This time, Chinese officials are reportedly eyeing Tesla and SpaceX boss (and major Trump campaign donor) Elon Musk as a possible access point, given Musk’s extensive business interests in China and existing relationships with top Chinese officials.
Chinese government departments are also reportedly making contingency plans for:
- An intensification of the trade war
- A renewed arms race
- Changes to Washington’s Middle East policy
Get smart: Beijing’s baseline assumption is that the US will remain hostile to its economic and geopolitical interests.
- As such, China’s overall push for economic security and technological self-reliance will continue.
Get smarter: During Trump’s first term, Chinese policymakers often scrambled to react to his unpredictable style.
- This time around, Beijing is much better placed to respond confidently.