Top legislators set a date
Mark your calendars: The legislature (NPCSC) will meet from November 4-8.
- On Friday, the NPCSC held its chairpersons' meeting, setting the date and agenda for the highly anticipated meeting.
The four-day session has a packed agenda, including (Xinhua):
- Deliberation of at least 10 legislative items
- Review of nine reports from various government bodies
Notably absent from the meeting readout: Any mention of additional bond issuance or fiscal stimulus.
Does this mean fiscal stimulus is off the table?
- No.
Despite not featuring on the meeting readout, we are all but certain fiscal stimulus is on the agenda.
- The NPCSC often keeps fiscal-related agenda items – like mid-year budget revisions or bond issuance – under wraps until the last minute.
- For example, in October 2023, the legislature approved an additional RMB 1 trillion bond issuance without prior notice.
Get smart: Businesses and investors are desperate for a big-bang fiscal stimulus that reinvigorates consumer confidence and equity markets.
- If Beijing fails to deliver, confidence will be dealt a severe blow.
What to watch: If the NPCSC does pass a stimulus package, it won't announce it until the final day of the meeting, on November 8.