Xi Jinping changes tune on annual economic goals
Xi Jinping raised eyebrows on Thursday when he ordered officials to “strive to accomplish the annual economic and social development goals” at a symposium in Lanzhou, Gansu province (Gov.cn).
- In contrast, at the Third Plenum in July, the leadership said officials must “unwaveringly achieve the annual economic and social development goals.”
The softer language has left some wondering whether officials think the 2024 growth target is out of reach.
But we think that’s reading too much into it. Here's why:
Exhibit 1: On September 11, Sichuan Party boss Wang Xiaohui repeated the Third Plenum phrase at an economic planning meeting, adding Sichuan will “shoulder the responsibilities of a major economic province” (Sichuan Workers' Daily).
Exhibit 2: More crucially, in a September 10 report to the legislature, the macro planner (NDRC) expressed confidence that China is on track to reach its goals:
- “Indicators such as economic growth...meet expectations.”
- “We will unwaveringly accomplish the annual economic and social development goals and tasks.”
The NDRC also said more support is in the pipeline:
- “The key is to…prepare additional policy measures in advance to be introduced when needed.”
Our take: Despite the sluggish economy, officials are confident they can pull off the 2024 growth target – but getting there will require more policy support than initially planned.
Get smart: Whatever new support officials are considering, they’d better roll it out fast to give it a chance of significantly impacting growth this year.