China reaches peak pork

China's pork production has peaked.

That's according to the 10-year agriculture outlook report, released last weekend at an annual two-day event featuring presentations by analysts at the ag ministry (MARA) and Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences (CAAS).

The report projects China's pork production will fall by nearly 7% over the next decade.

• That's a drop from around 58 million metric tons in 2023 to 54 million tons in 2033.

Chinese farms will meet consumer demand for a more diverse range of proteins:

• Domestic dairy product output is projected to grow at a bustling 4.1% annual average.
• Chicken and duck meat production is expected to hit nearly 30 million tons by 2033 – an average annual growth rate of 1.5%.
• Egg production is also anticipated to continue growing at an estimated 0.6% annual rate to reach 36.75 million tons in a decade.
• Domestic beef, sheepmeat, and farmed fish production are also expected to rise.

Plus, imports will continue to play a big role in China's protein supply:

• Beef and sheepmeat imports are expected to grow 1.9% and 4% annually, respectively, over the next decade.
• Dairy imports are expected to grow at an annual average of 1.2%, topping over 21 million metric tons in 2033.

Get smart: China's agricultural projections aren't flawless – these figures assume that current domestic policy agendas will work out well.

• Still, they provide a powerful signal from within the system that despite the self-sufficiency rhetoric, China's massive market for imported agricultural products isn't going anywhere.

Dig deeper: If you need more info on what's in China's agricultural outlook, get in touch at [email protected].

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