A Lai in the ointment

Beijing’s not going to like this.

On Saturday, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate William Lai won the Taiwanese leadership election.

ICYDK: The election was a three-way race between Lai, the Kuomintang’s (KMT) Hou Yu-ih, and the Taiwan People’s Party’s (TPP) Ko Wen-je.

• Beijing had hoped either Hou or Ko would defeat Lai, who has described himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan’s independence.”

The results (Bloomberg 1):

• Lai won 40.1% of the votes.
• Hou of the KMT won 33.5%.
• Ko of the TPP won 26.5%.

Upon winning, Lai made pointed reference to the mainland (Bloomberg 2):

• “Between democracy and authoritarianism, we will stand on the side of democracy.”
• “The Taiwanese people have successfully resisted efforts from external forces to influence this election.”

But it wasn’t a perfect night for Lai:

• The DPP lost 10 seats in the legislature, securing 51 seats compared to the KMT’s 52 and the TPP’s eight.
• Failure to retain a DPP majority will force Lai to wheel and deal with the opposition.

What to watch: Lai has made provocative statements about independence in the past, but dialed them back as a candidate.

• Having now won, will he feel emboldened to push for independence, or will he stick to a less confrontational position?