Real-time bull monitoring

finance economics

1. Data dump – credit

China’s central bank released credit data for December late yesterday.
The headlines:

Net new total social financing (TSF) hit RMB 1.72 trillion last month, lower than the forecasted RMB 2.20 trillion.
Net new bank loans was RMB 1.26 trillion in December, slightly exceeding the average forecast of RMB 1.22 trillion.

Credit growth last month was the weakest since July:

Growth in the outstanding value of TSF slowed to 13.3% y/y from 13.6% in November.

Get used to hearing this: Monetary policy is normalizing.

Policymakers are now gently reversing the sharp expansion in credit introduced in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Get smart: This is not the start of a rapid declaration in credit expansion.

Policymakers have made clear that they will gradually normalize monetary policy.

Go deeper: For more in-depth analysis of the numbers, check out today’s (and everyday’s!) China Markets Dispatch.

PBoC: 2020年社会融资规模存量统计数据报告

politics policy

2. Han Zheng speak at the One Planet Summit

On Monday, Executive Vice Premier Han Zheng attended the One Planet Summit.

Some context: The virtual summit brought together international leaders from the public and private sectors to discuss climate change and biodiversity.

Han called on all parties to work closely together and formulate rational and enforceable post-2020 targets for biodiversity and climate change.

More context: China will be hosting the upcoming 15th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP-15) in Kunming, Yunnan this year, where a Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework will be formulated.

Han described China’s ongoing efforts (Xinhua 2):

“He said that China has made remarkable achievements in environmental protection, drawing a red line for ecological protection, setting up a national park system, and implementing major projects for biodiversity protection.”
“[The government] will continue to improve environmental quality and build a beautiful China in accordance with the requirements of high-quality development.”

Get smart: If China can position itself as a global leader on climate and biodiversity issues, it would go a long way in establishing it as a responsible global power.

read more

Xinhua: 韩正出席 “一个星球” 峰会并发表讲话

Xinhua: Chinese vice premier calls for jointly building shared future for all life on Earth

China Daily: Vice-premier advocates biodiversity measures

MoFA: Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian’s Regular Press Conference on January 12, 2021

3. Mark your calendars

The next National People’s Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) meeting will be January 20-22.

NPCSC Chairman Li Zhanshu announced the dates on Tuesday, along with a chunky list of legislation that will be up for consideration or review.

The date breaks with precedent (NPC Observer):

“The NPCSC used to hold regular bimonthly sessions in even-numbered months.”
“It seems to have abandoned that routine, after the Communist Party’s recent Five-Year Plan … directed the standing committees of people’s congresses to meet more frequently.”

Some context: TheParty wants China’s legislature to play a bigger role (see Monday’s Tip Sheet).

The NPCSC will consider drafts of or amendments to:

The Legal Aid Law
The Licensed Physicians Law
The Wetlands Protection Law
The Family Education Law
The Workplace Safety Law
The Education Law
The Animal Epidemic Prevention Law
The Coast Guard Law
The Administrative Penalties Law
The decision to establish a Beijing Financial Court

Get smart: The NPCSC passed a record number of laws in 2020. It looks likely to challenge that record in 2021.

NPC Observer: NPCSC Session Watch: Public Health, Coast Guard, Legal Aid, Wetlands Protection, Education Workplace Safety

4. Local governments get serious about forests

Yesterday, the general offices of the Party and the State Council jointly released a guideline to install “forest chiefs” nationwide.

The deets (Gov.cn):

In every province, either the provincial Party secretary or governor will take on the new role of forest chief.
The setup will be duplicated in lower-level governments by June 2022.

The job description:

Forest chiefs are responsible for the preservation of forests and grasslands in their jurisdictions.
They will have KPIs such as forest coverage and desertification control.

Some context: The forest chief program is similar to the “river chief” scheme that started in 2016. The country now has over 300,000 rivers chiefs, made up of leading cadres, who are responsible for river protection.

More context: The river chief scheme was first invented and trialed by local governments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces to tackle the severe pollution of Lake Tai in 2007.

Get smart: Xi Jinping is serious about conservation. Now provincial bigwigs will have to get serious about conservation too.

read more

Gov.cn: 中共中央办公厅国务院办公厅印发《关于全面推行林长制的意见》

Gov.cn: 如何以“林长制”促进“林长治”？——专访国家林草局党组书记、局长关志鸥

5. Monitoring bull

We’ve kept a close eye on crop and livestock genetic research since they were named top 2021 priorities at the Central Economic Work Conference (see January 5 Tip Sheet).

On Tuesday, Vice Premier Hu Chunhua put the spotlight on the sector during a visit to a livestock research institute affiliated with the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, where he (Gov.cn):

Attended an expert forum
Visited the National Beef Cattle Genetic Improvement Center and the National Bull Online Real-time Monitoring Center

That’s right: China monitors its best breeding bulls in real time.

Some context: China estimates beef and dairy imports will grow rapidly until 2030. Improving domestic cattle breeding could reduce dependence on imports.

Hu outlined measures to improve the ag genetics space, including:

Promoting innovation at major enterprises
Improving integration between industry and universities
Improving systems for commercializing new developments

Get smart: We’re not sure breeding alone can milk much more efficiency out of domestic herds.

Get smarter: Much of the edge countries like the US, Australia and Brazil have in livestock comes from cheaper feed and more plentiful farmland.

read more

Gov.cn: 胡春华调研畜禽种源保护与利用并出席专家座谈会

Xinhua: Chinese scientists breed new crop varieties to support food security

6. COVID-19 spreads from Hebei and Heilongjiang

It’s baaaaaack…

On Tuesday, China reported:

90 confirmed cases and 15 asymptomatic cases in Shijiazhuang and Xingtai in Hebei province
16 confirmed cases and 12 asymptomatic cases in Suihua, Yichun, Harbin, and Qiqihar in Heilongjiang province
Seven asymptomatic cases in Changchun and Tonghua in Jilin province
One asymptomatic case in Weihai in Shandong province
One asymptomatic case in Haining in Zhejiang province

Cases cropping up in previously unaffected Shandong, Jilin, and Zhejiang have been linked to the outbreaks in Hebei and Heilongjiang:

The case discovered in Weihai, Shandong returned from Suihua, Heilongjiang.
Four of the asymptomatic cases reported in Jilin were linked to Heilongjiang.
The case in Haining, Zhejiang was linked to the Hebei outbreak.

Don’t forget: Shanxi and Xinjiang also recently reported cases linked to the Hebei outbreak (see January 12 China Market Dispatch).

Some local governments are taking precautionary measures:

Guizhou and Guangxi provinces are tracking close contacts of confirmed cases from Hebei.
Qingxu county in Taiyuan, Shanxi province, has temporarily suspended public transit and taxis in the county.

Get smart: In the previous few months, local outbreaks were sporadic and isolated. This latest outbreak is something more serious.

The big question: Can central and local governments contain the spread without derailing the country’s economic recovery.

read more

Health Commission of Hebei Province: 2021年1月12日河北省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情情况

Health Commission of Heilongjiang Province: 黑龙江卫健委最新疫情通报

Health Commission of Jilin Province: 吉林省卫生健康委关于新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情情况通报（2021年1月13日公布）

Caixin: 浙江海宁发现1例河北石家庄输入无症状感染者

The Paper: 威海市新增无症状感染者1例，系黑龙江绥化市望奎县来威人员

The Paper: 发现7名无症状感染者，齐齐哈尔市昂昂溪区实行封闭管理

7. Government tries to limit travel

Even under optimal conditions, the resurgence of COVID-19 would be concerning (see entry above).

With Chinese New Year (CNY) – aka the world’s largest annual human migration – just weeks away, conditions are distinctly suboptimal.

According to China’s railway authority, an estimated 407 million train journeys are expected to be taken between January 28 and March 8.

To combat the danger, the central government has done what it does best – it convened a committee:

The State Council has assembled a 15-member task force led by Minister of Transportation Li Xiaopeng to manage the risk.
The group will oversee emergency planning and efforts to discourage large crowds from traveling during the holiday.

Li’s thinking (SCMP):

“Li said it was necessary to stagger journeys and monitor passenger flow during the festivities.”
“The working group should strictly regulate imports of cold chain logistics and tighten up pandemic controls covering people returning from overseas, he said.”

While sensible from a public health perspective, a muted CNY holiday is kind of a bummer economically speaking.

CNY is a boom time for China’s economy each year, akin to the shopping season before Christmas.

Get smart: China’s economy has been on the mend, but a significant drop in travel during the holiday could hamper growth in Q1.

What we’re watching: Will authorities have the outbreak under control by CNY, or will more stringent restrictions be put in place?

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